Elche 3-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Elche at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Elche vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Elche host Mallorca at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in La Liga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Elche stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Elche have posted 4W 1D 5L at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mallorca — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mallorca's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Elche at 1.00 PPG versus Mallorca's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Elche register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Mallorca in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Elche have won 0, Mallorca 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Elche in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Mallorca in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Elche 58% versus Mallorca 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 55% | Mallorca 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.47 xG and Mallorca 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.846 / defence 1.241 | Mallorca attack 0.749 / defence 1.534. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.060. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.534 — this is suppressing Elche's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Elche games / 31 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 48% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 25%. Fair-value odds: Elche 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Mallorca 4.00. Elche hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Elche are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Elche offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Elche 60% | Mallorca 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 48% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Elche 1.47 / Mallorca 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.846 / def 1.241 | Mallorca attack 0.749 / def 1.534 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Elche (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Elche xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Mallorca xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Mallorca kick off?
Elche vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Mallorca?
Elche 3 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Elche vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Mallorca part of?
Elche vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 48% chance of winning, Mallorca a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Elche and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Mallorca?
Record (1 meetings): Elche 0W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 0W.
What form are Elche and Mallorca in?
Elche (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Elche's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Elche's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.66
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Elche xG
Total xG
2.45
0.98
Mallorca xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
6%
17.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Elche and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Elche and 0.98 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Elche have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 8D 15L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Mallorca's form line: 7W 8D 16L from 31 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Elche on 1.03 PPG, Mallorca on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Elche have posted 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 11L from 15 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Elche come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Elche are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.87 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 31 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 8W 8D 15L in their last 31 games (1.03 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 7W 8D 16L in their last 31 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Mallorca away?
Elche's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.33 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Elche and Mallorca runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when Elche won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Elche's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Elche
2
Draws
1
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Mallorca?
From 6 meetings on record, Elche have won 3, Mallorca have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Elche 2-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Mallorca?
Elche have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 60%, Mallorca 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Elche) and 53% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Elche have failed to score in 27% of games; Mallorca in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Elche's games and 53% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Elche vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Elche's recent games and 53% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Mallorca tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Elche run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche beat Mallorca 3-0 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.47 xG and Mallorca 0.98 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Elche beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mallorca landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.85 / defence 1.24 against Mallorca attack 0.75 / defence 1.53, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 48% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 25%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 55%, Mallorca 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Mallorca's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Elche 1.03 PPG, Mallorca 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock. Elche (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.