Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Real Sociedad make the trip to Abanca-Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Celta Vigo's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's home record at Abanca-Balaídos: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Abanca-Balaídos.
Real Sociedad (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Sociedad have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Sociedad are 0.60 PPG clear of Celta Vigo in recent La Liga fixtures (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Celta Vigo lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Real Sociedad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Real Sociedad — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 37% versus Real Sociedad 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 39% | Real Sociedad 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.67 xG and Real Sociedad 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.156 / defence 1.024 | Real Sociedad attack 1.217 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.199. Real Sociedad have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Celta Vigo games / 46 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 42% | Draw 23% | Real Sociedad 34%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Real Sociedad 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Real Sociedad (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 40% | Real Sociedad 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 42% | Draw 23% | Real Sociedad 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Celta Vigo 1.67 / Real Sociedad 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.156 / def 1.024 | Real Sociedad attack 1.217 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Real Sociedad xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Celta Vigo 1 - 2 Real Sociedad.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad part of?
Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 42% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad?
Record (2 meetings): Celta Vigo 0W | Draws 0 | Real Sociedad 2W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Celta Vigo's attack rating (1.16) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Sociedad's attack (1.22x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
42%
2.37
23%
4.26
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
3.17
1.49
Real Sociedad xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
6%
15.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.49 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Celta Vigo come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 11D 20L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.70 PPG from 46 outings (22W 12D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Celta Vigo's home form reads 9W 5D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 1.57 points per game from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.15 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Real Sociedad in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 22W 12D 12L in their last 46 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.39 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Celta Vigo
3
Draws
5
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 2, Real Sociedad have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-1 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 48%, Real Sociedad 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Celta Vigo) and 48% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Real Sociedad in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 52% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 48% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Real Sociedad defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Celta Vigo 1-2 at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.67 xG and Real Sociedad 1.49 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.16 / defence 1.02 against Real Sociedad attack 1.22 / defence 1.09, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 42% | Draw 23% | Real Sociedad 34%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Real Sociedad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 39%, Real Sociedad 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.