Celta Vigo 0-0 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Betis at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Celta Vigo host Real Betis at Abanca-Balaídos in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Celta Vigo — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Celta Vigo's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Abanca-Balaídos this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Betis have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Real Betis away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Celta Vigo at 1.50 PPG versus Real Betis's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Celta Vigo have won 1, Real Betis 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Celta Vigo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Celta Vigo trading profile (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Real Betis trading profile (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 39% versus Real Betis 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 36% | Real Betis 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.48 xG and Real Betis 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.085 / defence 1.322 | Real Betis attack 1.257 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.110. Real Betis have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Celta Vigo games / 28 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 31% | Draw 23% | Real Betis 46%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Real Betis 2.17. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Betis at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 60% | Real Betis 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 31% | Draw 23% | Real Betis 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Celta Vigo 1.48 / Real Betis 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.085 / def 1.322 | Real Betis attack 1.257 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Real Betis xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Real Betis kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Celta Vigo 0 - 0 Real Betis.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Real Betis part of?
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 31% chance of winning, Real Betis a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Celta Vigo and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Real Betis?
Record (1 meetings): Celta Vigo 1W | Draws 0 | Real Betis 0W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Real Betis in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Real Betis (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Celta Vigo's attack rating (1.08) and Real Betis's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
31%
3.25
23%
4.30
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
3.33
1.85
Real Betis xG
3.25
31%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
5%
20.59
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.85 for Real Betis, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Celta Vigo have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 9W 8D 11L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Real Betis's form line: 15W 4D 9L from 28 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Real Betis are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Celta Vigo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Celta Vigo have posted 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L).
On the road, Real Betis have gone 7W 2D 4L from 13 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.79 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Current Season
Real Betis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 15W 4D 9L in their last 28 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Real Betis away?
Real Betis's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.38 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Real Betis in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Real Betis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Celta Vigo
4
Draws
1
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Real Betis?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 5, Real Betis have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Real Betis 1-1 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Real Betis?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 54%, Real Betis 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Celta Vigo) and 62% (Real Betis).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Real Betis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Celta Vigo's games and 62% of Real Betis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Celta Vigo vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 62% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Real Betis tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Celta Vigo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 29, as Celta Vigo and Real Betis drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.48 xG and Real Betis 1.85 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Celta Vigo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Real Betis landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.08 / defence 1.32 against Real Betis attack 1.26 / defence 1.19, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 31% | Draw 23% | Real Betis 46%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 36%, Real Betis 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Betis's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.