Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Osasuna travel to Abanca-Balaídos to take on Celta Vigo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 4W 2D 4L at Abanca-Balaídos — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Osasuna — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Celta Vigo) versus 1.40 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Celta Vigo, 0 for Osasuna and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Celta Vigo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 42% versus Osasuna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 42% | Osasuna 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.22 xG and Osasuna 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.052 / defence 1.090 | Osasuna attack 0.787 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.125. Data: 50 Celta Vigo games / 50 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 42% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 29%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Osasuna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 50% | Osasuna 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 42% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Celta Vigo 1.22 / Osasuna 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.052 / def 1.090 | Osasuna attack 0.787 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Osasuna xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Celta Vigo 1 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna part of?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 42% chance of winning, Osasuna a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Celta Vigo and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
Record (2 meetings): Celta Vigo 1W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Osasuna in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 1.05x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.46
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.19
0.96
Osasuna xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.96 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo come into this having played 50 games, going 15W 12D 23L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.34 PPG from 50 outings (18W 13D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.14 PPG, Osasuna on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Celta Vigo's home form reads 9W 6D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.25 points per game from 24 outings (8W 6D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 50 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 15W 12D 23L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 18W 13D 19L in their last 50 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Osasuna away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.38 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Osasuna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
2
Draws
4
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Osasuna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 50%, Osasuna 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Celta Vigo) and 29% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osasuna in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 38% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 29% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Osasuna tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Celta Vigo 1-2 at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.22 xG and Osasuna 0.96 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.05 / defence 1.09 against Osasuna attack 0.79 / defence 0.83, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 42% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 29%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 42%, Osasuna 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.14 PPG, Osasuna 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.