Celta Vigo 0-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 46%, yet in-form Osasuna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Celta Vigo vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Osasuna travel to Estadio Abanca-Balaídos to take on Celta Vigo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Celta Vigo haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Celta Vigo are significantly better at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Osasuna haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Osasuna away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Osasuna's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Celta Vigo's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Celta Vigo, 1 for Osasuna and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Osasuna in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 53% versus Osasuna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 50% | Osasuna 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.34 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.975 / defence 0.968 | Osasuna attack 0.883 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.088. Data: 38 Celta Vigo games / 38 Osasuna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 25%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Osasuna 4.00. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osasuna (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 40% | Osasuna 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Celta Vigo 1.34 / Osasuna 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.975 / def 0.968 | Osasuna attack 0.883 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Osasuna xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Celta Vigo 0 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna part of?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 46% chance of winning, Osasuna a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Celta Vigo and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
Record (4 meetings): Celta Vigo 1W | Draws 2 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Osasuna in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Celta Vigo (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 0.97x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.48
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.27
0.93
Osasuna xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
7%
15.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.93 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 10D 17L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. Celta Vigo haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.39 PPG from 38 outings (15W 8D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. Osasuna haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.13 PPG, Osasuna on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Celta Vigo's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.97 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 38 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Pre-Season
Osasuna
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Osasuna away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.42 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
2
Draws
4
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Osasuna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 58%, Osasuna 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Celta Vigo) and 26% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Osasuna in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 42% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 26% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Osasuna tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Celta Vigo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Celta Vigo 0-2 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.34 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Celta Vigo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Osasuna outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Osasuna attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 25%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 50%, Osasuna 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.13 PPG, Osasuna 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.