Celta Vigo 2-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 46%, yet in-form Mallorca provide a compelling counter-argument — this Celta Vigo vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Celta Vigo and Mallorca meet at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos in La Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Celta Vigo's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's home record at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Celta Vigo are significantly better at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Mallorca arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Celta Vigo register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Mallorca in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Celta Vigo, 3 for Mallorca and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 62% versus Mallorca 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 60% | Mallorca 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.54 xG and Mallorca 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.063 / defence 0.951 | Mallorca attack 1.040 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.155. Data: 53 Celta Vigo games / 54 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 28%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Mallorca 3.57. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mallorca (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 80% | Mallorca 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Celta Vigo 1.54 / Mallorca 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.063 / def 0.951 | Mallorca attack 1.040 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Mallorca xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Mallorca kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 6 December 2024 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Celta Vigo 2 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Mallorca part of?
Celta Vigo vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 46% chance of winning, Mallorca a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Celta Vigo and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Mallorca?
Record (6 meetings): Celta Vigo 1W | Draws 2 | Mallorca 3W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Mallorca in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Mallorca (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Celta Vigo's attack rating (1.06) and Mallorca's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (1.04x) against Celta Vigo's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.90
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.68
1.14
Mallorca xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
6%
16.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.14 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Celta Vigo's recent record stands at 15W 14D 24L from 53 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 20L across 53 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.19 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Celta Vigo have managed 10W 8D 7L from 25 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Celta Vigo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mallorca's away record stands at 6W 7D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.91 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 15W 14D 24L in their last 53 games (1.11 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 15W 18D 20L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Mallorca away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.52 PPG; Mallorca away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
3
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Mallorca have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Celta Vigo 2-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Mallorca?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 64%, Mallorca 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Celta Vigo) and 40% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Celta Vigo's games and 52% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Celta Vigo vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 40% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Mallorca tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Celta Vigo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Mallorca 2-0 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.54 xG and Mallorca 1.14 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mallorca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against Mallorca attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 28%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 60%, Mallorca 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Mallorca's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.11 PPG, Mallorca 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.