Celta Vigo 1-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Celta Vigo face Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Estadio Abanca-Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Monday 4 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Celta Vigo (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Celta Vigo at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cadiz have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Cadiz have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Celta Vigo, 0.40 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Cadiz edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 May 2023, ended Celta Vigo 0–1 Cadiz — a Cadiz win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 54% versus Cadiz 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 48% | Cadiz 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.19 xG and Cadiz 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.733 / defence 1.157 | Cadiz attack 0.821 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.134. Celta Vigo's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from Celta Vigo's last 52 games and Cadiz's last 52.
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 36% | Draw 33% | Cadiz 31%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.78 | Draw 3.00 | Cadiz 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Celta Vigo 60% (last 10 home games) | Cadiz 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, matchday 15 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Monday 4 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 36% | Draw 33% | Cadiz 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Celta Vigo 1.19 / Cadiz 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.733 / def 1.157 | Cadiz attack 0.821 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Cadiz xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Celta Vigo vs Cadiz FAQs
What time does Celta Vigo vs Cadiz kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 4 December 2023 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Celta Vigo 1 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Cadiz part of?
Celta Vigo vs Cadiz is a La Liga fixture (matchday 15) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 36% chance of winning, Cadiz a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Celta Vigo and Cadiz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Celta Vigo vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 0.73x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.82x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Celta Vigo's last 52 games and Cadiz's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
36%
2.78
33%
3.00
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.26
1.08
Cadiz xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Celta Vigo vs Cadiz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.08 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Celta Vigo come into this having played 52 games, going 12W 15D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 1.02 PPG from 52 outings (12W 17D 23L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.02 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Celta Vigo's home form reads 7W 9D 10L across their last 26 home games, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 0.65 points per game from their last 26 away games (3W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.79 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
Celta Vigo (Home) vs Cadiz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Celta Vigo
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Celta Vigo vs Cadiz Form FAQs
What form are Celta Vigo and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 12W 15D 25L in their last 52 games (0.98 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 12W 17D 23L in their last 52 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Cadiz away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.15 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won Celta Vigo 3-0 Cadiz on 2 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Celta Vigo
3
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Celta Vigo vs Cadiz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Cadiz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Celta Vigo have won 1, Cadiz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Cadiz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 February 2024: Cadiz 2-2 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Cadiz?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 54%, Cadiz 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Celta Vigo) and 27% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Celta Vigo vs Cadiz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Celta Vigo and Cadiz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 38% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Celta Vigo and Cadiz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 27% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Cadiz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 54% of Cadiz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Celta Vigo and Cadiz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 15, as Celta Vigo and Cadiz drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.19 xG and Cadiz 1.08 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.73 / defence 1.16 against Cadiz attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 36% | Draw 33% | Cadiz 31%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 48%, Cadiz 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Cadiz's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 0.98 PPG, Cadiz 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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