Cadiz 1-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Betis at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 31 as Cadiz welcome Real Betis to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Cadiz at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Real Betis — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Real Betis have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Real Betis — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cadiz, 0 for Real Betis and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cadiz in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Real Betis in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 47% versus Real Betis 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 33% | Real Betis 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.93 xG and Real Betis 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.757 / defence 1.094 | Real Betis attack 1.112 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.081. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Cadiz games / 30 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 26% | Draw 29% | Real Betis 45%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Real Betis 2.22. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Betis are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cadiz 50% | Real Betis 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 26% | Draw 29% | Real Betis 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Cadiz 0.93 / Real Betis 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.757 / def 1.094 | Real Betis attack 1.112 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Real Betis xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Real Betis kick off?
Cadiz vs Real Betis kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Cadiz 1 - 2 Real Betis.
Where is Cadiz vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Real Betis part of?
Cadiz vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 26% chance of winning, Real Betis a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cadiz and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Betis?
Record (1 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 1 | Real Betis 0W.
What form are Cadiz and Real Betis in?
Cadiz (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Real Betis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.76x the league average against Real Betis's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
26%
3.87
29%
3.42
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.25
1.31
Real Betis xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
7%
14.41
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.9 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.31 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cadiz's recent record stands at 5W 13D 12L from 30 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Real Betis, meanwhile, have gone 16W 5D 9L across 30 games — 1.77 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Betis by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cadiz have managed 2W 7D 5L from 14 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Betis's away record stands at 7W 3D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 30 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Real Betis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 5W 13D 12L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 16W 5D 9L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Real Betis away?
Real Betis's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.93 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Real Betis in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cadiz's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
3
Draws
2
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Betis?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Real Betis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when Cadiz 0-2 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 43%, Real Betis 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Cadiz) and 57% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cadiz's recent matches and 57% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Cadiz's recent games and 57% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Real Betis tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Betis edge out Cadiz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Cadiz 1-2 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.93 xG and Real Betis 1.31 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.76 / defence 1.09 against Real Betis attack 1.11 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 26% | Draw 29% | Real Betis 45%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 33%, Real Betis 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Real Betis's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.