Cadiz 2-3 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Cadiz take on Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cadiz host Osasuna at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cadiz — All Games: 0W 2D 0L from 2 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 0W 2D 0L from 2 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cadiz at 1.00 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.85 xG and Osasuna 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.987 / defence 1.196 | Osasuna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.752 / away 0.783. Data: 2 Cadiz games / 2 Osasuna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 32% | Draw 40% | Osasuna 28%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 3.12 | Draw 2.50 | Osasuna 3.57. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 32% | Draw 40% | Osasuna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 34% | xG Cadiz 0.85 / Osasuna 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.987 / def 1.196 | Osasuna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.752 / away 0.783 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Osasuna xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Osasuna kick off?
Cadiz vs Osasuna kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Cadiz 2 - 3 Osasuna.
Where is Cadiz vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Osasuna part of?
Cadiz vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 32% chance of winning, Osasuna a 28% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Cadiz and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Osasuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cadiz and Osasuna in?
Cadiz (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D. Osasuna (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
40%
2.51
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Cadiz xG
Total xG
1.65
0.80
Osasuna xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.51
40%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.2 | 15.3 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.9%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Cadiz and 0.80 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cadiz's recent record stands at 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 0L across 2 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cadiz on 1.00 PPG, Osasuna on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Cadiz have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Osasuna in 0%.
Defensively: Osasuna in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Cadiz or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Osasuna in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cadiz's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cadiz
1
Draws
5
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Osasuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 0, Osasuna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Osasuna 2-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Cadiz's recent matches and 0% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Cadiz's recent games and 0% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Osasuna tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Cadiz 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Cadiz 2-3 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.85 xG and Osasuna 0.80 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cadiz beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.99 / defence 1.20 against Osasuna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 32% | Draw 40% | Osasuna 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 0%, Osasuna 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 1.00 PPG, Osasuna 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Cadiz scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.