Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Madrid vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Metropolitano Stadium to face Atletico Madrid in La Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 January 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Atletico Madrid (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Madrid's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Metropolitano Stadium this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Atletico Madrid are significantly better at Metropolitano Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Atletico Madrid's favour (2.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Atletico Madrid 3W, Alaves 2W, 2D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Atletico Madrid half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 49% versus Alaves 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 44% | Alaves 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 2.13 xG and Alaves 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.320 / defence 0.865 | Alaves attack 0.734 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.114. Atletico Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Atletico Madrid games / 57 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 69% | Draw 21% | Alaves 10%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.45 | Draw 4.76 | Alaves 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Madrid (69%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Madrid are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Madrid 60% | Alaves 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Metropolitano Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 69% | Draw 21% | Alaves 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 46% | xG Atletico Madrid 2.13 / Alaves 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.320 / def 0.865 | Alaves attack 0.734 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Alaves xG
46%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Alaves kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Alaves kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Metropolitano Stadium.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?
Atletico Madrid 1 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Metropolitano Stadium.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Alaves part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 69% chance of winning, Alaves a 10% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Alaves?
Record (7 meetings): Atletico Madrid 3W | Draws 2 | Alaves 2W.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Alaves in?
Atletico Madrid (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Alaves (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atletico Madrid's attack at 1.32x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.73x) against Atletico Madrid's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
69%
1.45
21%
4.83
10%
9.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
2.83
0.71
Alaves xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
9.88
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
12%
8.38
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
1%
82.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.71 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Atletico Madrid have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 33W 15D 9L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alaves's form line: 15W 16D 26L from 57 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alaves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atletico Madrid have posted 2.54 PPG from 28 outings (22W 5D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Atletico Madrid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Alaves have gone 5W 7D 16L from 28 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.95 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Madrid and Alaves in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 33W 15D 9L in their last 57 games (2.00 PPG), while Alaves have gone 15W 16D 26L in their last 57 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Alaves away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.54 PPG; Alaves away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Alaves in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won 4-1 on 2 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Madrid have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Atletico Madrid
2
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Atletico Madrid have won 4, Alaves have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Alaves?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 50%, Alaves 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Atletico Madrid) and 50% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alaves in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Madrid play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 54% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Madrid vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Atletico Madrid's recent games and 50% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Madrid and Alaves tend to score early?
Atletico Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Alaves in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Alaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Alaves 1-0 at Metropolitano Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 2.13 xG and Alaves 0.71 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Madrid fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.32 / defence 0.86 against Alaves attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 69% | Draw 21% | Alaves 10%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 44%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alaves's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.