Athletic Club 2-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Athletic Club at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
San Mamés Barria plays host to Athletic Club versus Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Athletic Club have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at San Mamés Barria, Athletic Club have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at San Mamés Barria. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Athletic Club are significantly better at San Mamés Barria than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Athletic Club's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Athletic Club lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Athletic Club winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Athletic Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 40% versus Osasuna 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 43% | Osasuna 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.76 xG and Osasuna 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.122 / defence 0.843 | Osasuna attack 0.893 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.116. Data: 72 Athletic Club games / 72 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 59% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 18%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Osasuna 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 40% | Osasuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 59% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Athletic Club 1.76 / Osasuna 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.122 / def 0.843 | Osasuna attack 0.893 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Osasuna xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Osasuna kick off?
Athletic Club vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Athletic Club 2 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Athletic Club vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Osasuna part of?
Athletic Club vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 59% chance of winning, Osasuna a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Athletic Club and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Osasuna?
Record (5 meetings): Athletic Club 3W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Athletic Club and Osasuna in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Athletic Club's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.89x) against Athletic Club's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.31
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.60
0.84
Osasuna xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
3%
33.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.84 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Athletic Club have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 31W 19D 22L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Osasuna's form line: 26W 14D 32L from 72 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Athletic Club against 1.28 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Athletic Club have posted 1.81 PPG from 36 outings (19W 8D 9L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 9W 10D 17L from 36 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Athletic Club are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.03 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 31W 19D 22L in their last 72 games (1.56 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 26W 14D 32L in their last 72 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Osasuna away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.81 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Osasuna in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Athletic Club have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Athletic Club
4
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 5, Osasuna have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Athletic Club 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Osasuna?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 33%, Osasuna 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Athletic Club) and 39% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Athletic Club have failed to score in 33% of games; Osasuna in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 47% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Athletic Club's recent games and 39% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Osasuna tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Athletic Club and Osasuna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 35, as Athletic Club and Osasuna drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.76 xG and Osasuna 0.84 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Osasuna outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.12 / defence 0.84 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 59% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 18%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 43%, Osasuna 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.56 PPG, Osasuna 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Athletic Club (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.