Athletic Club 0-1 Elche – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Athletic Club at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Elche encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Elche make the trip to San Mamés Barria to face Athletic Club in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Athletic Club (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Athletic Club's home record at San Mamés Barria: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Elche's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Elche's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Athletic Club's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Athletic Club 2W, Elche 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 4–1 with Athletic Club winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Athletic Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Elche goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 43% versus Elche 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 40% | Elche 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.43 xG and Elche 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 0.848 / defence 0.912 | Elche attack 0.738 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.039. Data: 74 Athletic Club games / 74 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 55% | Draw 27% | Elche 18%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Elche 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Athletic Club as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 30% | Elche 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 55% | Draw 27% | Elche 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 38% | xG Athletic Club 1.43 / Elche 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 0.848 / def 0.912 | Elche attack 0.738 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Elche xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Elche kick off?
Athletic Club vs Elche kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Elche?
Athletic Club 0 - 1 Elche.
Where is Athletic Club vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Elche part of?
Athletic Club vs Elche is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 55% chance of winning, Elche a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Athletic Club and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Elche?
Record (3 meetings): Athletic Club 2W | Draws 1 | Elche 0W.
What form are Athletic Club and Elche in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Elche (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Athletic Club's attack at 0.85x the league average against Elche's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Elche's attack (0.74x) against Athletic Club's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.69
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.13
0.70
Elche xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
4%
22.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.70 for Elche, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Elche?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Athletic Club's recent record stands at 28W 21D 25L from 74 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Elche, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 41L across 74 games — 0.85 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Athletic Club by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Elche heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Athletic Club have managed 18W 7D 12L from 37 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Elche's away record stands at 5W 7D 25L across 37 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Athletic Club are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 0.92 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 74 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Current Season
Elche
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Elche in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 28W 21D 25L in their last 74 games (1.42 PPG), while Elche have gone 15W 18D 41L in their last 74 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Elche away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.65 PPG; Elche away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Elche been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Elche in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Athletic Club won 1-4 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Athletic Club have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Elche — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Athletic Club
2
Draws
1
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Elche?
From 6 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 3, Elche have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Athletic Club 2-1 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Elche?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 38%, Elche 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Athletic Club) and 57% (Elche).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Athletic Club have failed to score in 35% of games; Elche in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Elche?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 46% of Elche's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Athletic Club's recent games and 57% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Elche tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Elche in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Elche defy the odds to beat Athletic Club 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche beat Athletic Club 0-1 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.43 xG and Elche 0.70 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Athletic Club fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.85 / defence 0.91 against Elche attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 55% | Draw 27% | Elche 18%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Elche win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 40%, Elche 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Elche's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Elche winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Elche (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.