Almeria 1-3 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almeria vs Real Sociedad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Real Sociedad travel to Power Horse Stadium to take on Almeria. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Almeria — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Power Horse Stadium, Almeria have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Almeria are significantly better at Power Horse Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Sociedad have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Sociedad's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Real Sociedad — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Almeria, 2 for Real Sociedad and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Real Sociedad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Almeria in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Real Sociedad in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 68% versus Real Sociedad 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 64% | Real Sociedad 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.35 xG and Real Sociedad 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 1.017 / defence 1.458 | Real Sociedad attack 0.980 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.221. Data: 50 Almeria games / 50 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 30% | Draw 24% | Real Sociedad 47%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Real Sociedad 2.13. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Sociedad are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 70% | Real Sociedad 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 30% | Draw 24% | Real Sociedad 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Almeria 1.35 / Real Sociedad 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 1.017 / def 1.458 | Real Sociedad attack 0.980 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Real Sociedad xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Almeria vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Real Sociedad?
Almeria 1 - 3 Real Sociedad.
Where is Almeria vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Real Sociedad part of?
Almeria vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 30% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Almeria and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Real Sociedad?
Record (2 meetings): Almeria 0W | Draws 0 | Real Sociedad 2W.
What form are Almeria and Real Sociedad in?
Almeria (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Almeria's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Real Sociedad's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
30%
3.37
24%
4.24
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Almeria xG
Total xG
3.09
1.74
Real Sociedad xG
3.37
30%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
17%
5.72
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
5%
19.25
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Almeria and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Almeria and 1.74 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almeria come into this having played 50 games, going 11W 11D 28L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.80 PPG from 50 outings (26W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Almeria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Almeria's home form reads 10W 5D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 1.58 points per game from 24 outings (11W 5D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Almeria are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.42 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 11W 11D 28L in their last 50 games (0.88 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 26W 12D 12L in their last 50 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.46 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Almeria or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almeria and Real Sociedad runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Almeria's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almeria
1
Draws
3
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Real Sociedad?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 0, Real Sociedad have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when Real Sociedad 2-2 Almeria.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 67%, Real Sociedad 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Almeria) and 42% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad in 38%; Real Sociedad in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Real Sociedad?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Almeria's games and 46% of Real Sociedad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Almeria's recent games and 42% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Almeria 1-3 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.35 xG and Real Sociedad 1.74 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Real Sociedad outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 1.02 / defence 1.46 against Real Sociedad attack 0.98 / defence 0.88, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 30% | Draw 24% | Real Sociedad 47%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 64%, Real Sociedad 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Almeria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.