Almeria 3-1 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Espanyol at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almeria vs Espanyol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Espanyol travel to Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos to take on Almeria. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 January 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almeria stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos this season: 5W 1D 3L from 9 home games — 1.78 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Almeria are significantly better at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos than their overall form suggests.
Espanyol — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Almeria) versus 1.40 (Espanyol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Almeria register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Espanyol in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Almeria in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Espanyol in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almeria 61% and Espanyol 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 50% | Espanyol 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.21 xG and Espanyol 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.988 / defence 1.148 | Espanyol attack 1.129 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.031. Data: 18 Almeria games / 56 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 34% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 40%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Espanyol 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Espanyol are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Espanyol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 67% | Espanyol 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 34% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Almeria 1.21 / Espanyol 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.988 / def 1.148 | Espanyol attack 1.129 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Espanyol xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Espanyol kick off?
Almeria vs Espanyol kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 27 January 2023 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Espanyol?
Almeria 3 - 1 Espanyol.
Where is Almeria vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Espanyol part of?
Almeria vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 34% chance of winning, Espanyol a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Almeria and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Espanyol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almeria and Espanyol in?
Almeria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Espanyol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almeria's attack rating (0.99) and Espanyol's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Espanyol's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
34%
2.98
27%
3.75
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.54
1.33
Espanyol xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Almeria and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Almeria and 1.33 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almeria come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 4D 9L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Espanyol sit at 1.11 PPG from 18 outings (4W 8D 6L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 1.06 PPG, Espanyol on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Almeria's home form reads 5W 1D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Espanyol have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (2W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almeria are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Espanyol in 67%.
Last 18 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 4W 8D 6L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Espanyol away?
Almeria's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.78 PPG; Espanyol away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almeria and Espanyol runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Almeria
1
Draws
0
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Espanyol?
From 2 meetings on record, Almeria have won 1, Espanyol have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when Espanyol 3-3 Almeria.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Espanyol?
Almeria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Espanyol see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Almeria at 67%, Espanyol at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Almeria) and 44% (Espanyol).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Espanyol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Almeria's games and 78% of Espanyol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Almeria's recent games and 44% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Espanyol tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almeria cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Espanyol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Espanyol 3-1 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.21 xG and Espanyol 1.33 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Almeria beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Espanyol attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 34% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 40%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Almeria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 50%, Espanyol 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Espanyol's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 1.06 PPG, Espanyol 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almeria win broke the near-deadlock. Almeria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. Espanyol (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.