Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Madrid (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Alaves face Real Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Alaves welcome Real Madrid to Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga (matchday 31). Kick-off is Sunday 13 April 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Alaves — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Alaves have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Real Madrid stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Real Madrid's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Real Madrid's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Alaves's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Real Madrid have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Alaves.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2024, ended Alaves 2–3 Real Madrid — a Real Madrid win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Real Madrid have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Alaves trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Real Madrid trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 82%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 44% versus Real Madrid 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 37% | Real Madrid 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alaves surrender their half-time lead 41% of the time, while Real Madrid have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 82% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.81 xG and Real Madrid 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.686 / defence 0.941 | Real Madrid attack 1.187 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.245. Alaves's attack rating of 0.686 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Alaves's last 68 games and Real Madrid's last 68.
Result probabilities: Alaves 22% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 51%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 4.59 | Draw 3.63 | Real Madrid 1.97. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alaves 40% (last 10 home games) | Real Madrid 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, matchday 31 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 22% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Alaves 0.81 / Real Madrid 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.686 / def 0.941 | Real Madrid attack 1.187 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Real Madrid xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Real Madrid FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Real Madrid kick off?
Alaves vs Real Madrid kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Alaves 0 - 1 Real Madrid.
Where is Alaves vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Real Madrid part of?
Alaves vs Real Madrid is a La Liga fixture (matchday 31) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 22% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alaves and Real Madrid will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Alaves vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alaves's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Real Madrid's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 68 games and Real Madrid's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
22%
4.59
28%
3.63
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.20
1.39
Real Madrid xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
45%
2.25
Win to Nil
5%
18.43
23%
4.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.4 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Real Madrid Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Alaves and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Alaves and 1.39 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alaves's recent record stands at 19W 19D 30L from 68 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, have gone 48W 14D 6L across 68 games — 2.32 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Madrid by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alaves heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 13W 8D 12L from their last 33 home games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Madrid's away record stands at 19W 10D 4L across their last 33 away games, a 2.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alaves are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.21 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Real Madrid
Current Season
Alaves (Home) vs Real Madrid (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Current Season
Real Madrid
Current Season
❓ Alaves vs Real Madrid Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 19W 19D 30L in their last 68 games (1.12 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 48W 14D 6L in their last 68 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.42 PPG; Real Madrid away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Alaves or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 21 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Real Madrid have taken the most recent 8 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 May 2024, when Real Madrid won Real Madrid 5-0 Alaves.
Alaves's record when hosting Real Madrid specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Alaves
0
Draws
8
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Real Madrid H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Madrid?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 0, Real Madrid have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Real Madrid last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2026: Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 36%, Real Madrid 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Alaves) and 58% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Real Madrid in 36%; Alaves have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Real Madrid Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Real Madrid matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Alaves's recent matches and 61% of Real Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Real Madrid matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Alaves's recent games and 58% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Real Madrid matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Alaves's recent matches and 70% of Real Madrid's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Alaves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.81 xG and Real Madrid 1.39 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.69 / defence 0.94 against Real Madrid attack 1.19 / defence 0.90, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 22% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 51%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 37%, Real Madrid 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Madrid's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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