Alaves 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Osasuna at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Osasuna — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alaves 1.50 PPG, Osasuna 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Osasuna, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Alaves.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Osasuna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Alaves in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 41% versus Osasuna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 33% | Osasuna 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.91 xG and Osasuna 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.613 / defence 0.747 | Osasuna attack 0.894 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.161. Alaves's attack strength of 0.613 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Alaves's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 Alaves games / 75 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 29%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Osasuna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.68 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 10% | Osasuna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Alaves 0.91 / Osasuna 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.613 / def 0.747 | Osasuna attack 0.894 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Alaves (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Osasuna xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Osasuna kick off?
Alaves vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Osasuna?
Alaves 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Alaves vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Osasuna part of?
Alaves vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 37% chance of winning, Osasuna a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Alaves and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Osasuna?
Record (5 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 4W.
What form are Alaves and Osasuna in?
Alaves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Osasuna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.61) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
37%
2.74
34%
2.92
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.68
0.78
Osasuna xG
2.74
37%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
12%
8.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 14.4 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Alaves and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Alaves and 0.78 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alaves's recent record stands at 22W 21D 32L from 75 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 24W 24D 27L across 75 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alaves on 1.16 PPG, Osasuna on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 15W 9D 13L from 37 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 8W 13D 16L across 37 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.23 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 75 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 22W 21D 32L in their last 75 games (1.16 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 24W 24D 27L in their last 75 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Osasuna away?
Alaves's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.46 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Osasuna runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2025, when Osasuna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Alaves
3
Draws
5
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Osasuna?
From 9 meetings on record, Alaves have won 1, Osasuna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Alaves 5-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 32%, Osasuna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Alaves and 46% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 35% of games; Osasuna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Alaves's recent matches and 54% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Alaves's recent games and 46% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Osasuna tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alaves and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves and Osasuna finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.91 xG and Osasuna 0.78 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.61 / defence 0.75 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 37% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 29%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 33%, Osasuna 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.16 PPG, Osasuna 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.