Alaves 1-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alaves and Mallorca meet at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Alaves (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Alaves, 2 for Mallorca and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 44% versus Mallorca 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 32% | Mallorca 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.10 xG and Mallorca 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.737 / defence 1.089 | Mallorca attack 0.732 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.135. Alaves's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Alaves games / 63 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 36% | Mallorca 27%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Mallorca 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 40% | Mallorca 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 36% | Mallorca 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Alaves 1.10 / Mallorca 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.737 / def 1.089 | Mallorca attack 0.732 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Alaves (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Mallorca xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Mallorca kick off?
Alaves vs Mallorca kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Mallorca?
Alaves 1 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Alaves vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Mallorca part of?
Alaves vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 37% chance of winning, Mallorca a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alaves and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Mallorca?
Record (3 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 2W.
What form are Alaves and Mallorca in?
Alaves (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.74) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.73x) against Alaves's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
37%
2.71
36%
2.76
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.00
0.91
Mallorca xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Alaves and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Alaves and 0.91 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alaves's recent record stands at 7W 7D 11L from 25 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 4W 11D 10L across 25 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Alaves against 0.92 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 5W 2D 5L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 1W 4D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.88 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 25 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 4W 11D 10L in their last 25 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Mallorca away?
Alaves's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.42 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alaves
3
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Mallorca?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Mallorca have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Alaves 2-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 42%, Mallorca 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Alaves and 33% for Mallorca.
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 33% of games; Mallorca in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Alaves's recent matches and 42% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Alaves's recent games and 33% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Mallorca tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alaves and Mallorca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 26, as Alaves and Mallorca drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.10 xG and Mallorca 0.91 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.74 / defence 1.09 against Mallorca attack 0.73 / defence 1.09, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 37% | Draw 36% | Mallorca 27%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 32%, Mallorca 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.12 PPG, Mallorca 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.