Alaves 3-1 Granada CF – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Alaves at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Alaves host Granada CF at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 November 2023 at 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alaves's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 games at Estadio de Mendizorroza this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Granada CF stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Granada CF away from home this season: 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

Alaves carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.90 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Alaves have won 0, Granada CF 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 2–3 with Granada CF winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Alaves in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Granada CF in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 46% versus Granada CF 69%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 23% | Granada CF 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.44 xG and Granada CF 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.702 / defence 1.095 | Granada CF attack 0.824 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.227. Alaves's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Alaves games / 13 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alaves 44% | Draw 28% | Granada CF 28%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Granada CF 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 33% | Granada CF 50%.

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