Alaves 1-0 Elche – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Elche at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Elche fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Elche travel to Estadio de Mendizorroza to take on Alaves. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have gone 2W 0D 7L from 9 outings — a 0.67 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.44 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 11% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves at Estadio de Mendizorroza this season: 1W 0D 4L from 5 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Elche — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Elche have posted 1W 0D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alaves 0.67 PPG, Elche 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Alaves in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
Elche in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Alaves 11% | Elche 56%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 22% | Elche 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.84 xG and Elche 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.610 / defence 1.198 | Elche attack 0.728 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.067. Alaves's attack strength of 0.610 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Elche bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Alaves games / 10 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 30% | Draw 34% | Elche 35%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Elche 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Alaves's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Elche are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Elche offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 20% | Elche 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 30% | Draw 34% | Elche 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Alaves 0.84 / Elche 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.610 / def 1.198 | Elche attack 0.728 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Elche (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Elche xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Elche kick off?
Alaves vs Elche kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 26 October 2021 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Elche?
Alaves 1 - 0 Elche.
Where is Alaves vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Elche part of?
Alaves vs Elche is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 30% chance of winning, Elche a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Alaves and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Elche?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alaves and Elche in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-0D-7L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.44 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Elche (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alaves's attack at 0.61x the league average against Elche's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Elche's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
30%
3.29
34%
2.90
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.77
0.93
Elche xG
3.29
30%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 15.8 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Alaves and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Alaves and 0.93 for Elche, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Elche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Alaves have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 2W 0D 7L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Elche's form line: 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alaves on 0.67 PPG, Elche on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alaves have posted 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L).
On the road, Elche have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Elche's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Alaves are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 0.89 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves have seen both teams score in 11% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Elche
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Elche in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 2W 0D 7L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while Elche have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Elche away?
Alaves's home record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 0.60 PPG; Elche away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Alaves's record when hosting Elche specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Alaves
1
Draws
1
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Elche?
From 4 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Elche have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Elche 1-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Elche?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alaves see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Alaves 20% BTTS, Elche 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Alaves and 40% for Elche.
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 60% of games; Elche in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Elche?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Alaves's recent matches and 40% of Elche's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Alaves's recent games and 40% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Elche tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Elche in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Elche 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Elche 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.84 xG and Elche 0.93 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Elche landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.61 / defence 1.20 against Elche attack 0.73 / defence 1.32, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 30% | Draw 34% | Elche 35%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Alaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 22%, Elche 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 11% of their matches — today it did not.
Elche's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 0.67 PPG, Elche 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.