Alaves 1-2 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alaves and Celta Vigo meet at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves have gone 3W 0D 4L this season (7 games, 1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Celta Vigo have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's away record: 2W 2D 2L from 6 road trips in La Liga this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 6 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Alaves have seen both teams score in just 29% of their matches, Celta Vigo in only 17%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Alaves 31% | Celta Vigo 31%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 31% | Celta Vigo 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.77 xG and Celta Vigo 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.730 / defence 1.090 | Celta Vigo attack 0.887 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.128. Alaves's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Alaves games / 14 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 24% | Draw 34% | Celta Vigo 41%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | Celta Vigo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 29% | Celta Vigo 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 24% | Draw 34% | Celta Vigo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Alaves 0.77 / Celta Vigo 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.730 / def 1.090 | Celta Vigo attack 0.887 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Celta Vigo xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Alaves vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Alaves 1 - 2 Celta Vigo.
Where is Alaves vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Celta Vigo part of?
Alaves vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 24% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Alaves and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Celta Vigo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alaves and Celta Vigo in?
Alaves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.73) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (0.89x) against Alaves's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
24%
4.09
34%
2.93
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.86
1.09
Celta Vigo xG
4.09
24%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
8%
12.16
19%
5.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 16.9 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Alaves and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Alaves and 1.09 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alaves's recent record stands at 4W 2D 7L from 13 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 6L across 13 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Alaves against 1.00 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Celta Vigo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Celta Vigo away?
Alaves's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.50 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Alaves or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 4-0 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alaves
2
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Celta Vigo?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Celta Vigo 3-4 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Celta Vigo tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Alaves) and 17% (Celta Vigo) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Alaves and 33% for Celta Vigo.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Celta Vigo in 67%; Alaves have failed to score in 50% of games; Celta Vigo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Alaves's recent matches and 17% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Alaves's recent games and 33% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 17% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Alaves 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Alaves 1-2 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.77 xG and Celta Vigo 1.09 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Celta Vigo outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.73 / defence 1.09 against Celta Vigo attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 24% | Draw 34% | Celta Vigo 41%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 31%, Celta Vigo 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.08 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.