Alaves 0-0 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Madrid at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Atletico Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atletico Madrid make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Alaves (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 2W 3D 5L at Estadio de Mendizorroza — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atletico Madrid's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atletico Madrid away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Alaves, 1.70 for Atletico Madrid — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Alaves 2W, Atletico Madrid 3W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Atletico Madrid winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Atletico Madrid half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 44% versus Atletico Madrid 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 35% | Atletico Madrid 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.72 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.643 / defence 0.871 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.032 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.184. Alaves's attack strength of 0.643 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Alaves games / 71 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 25% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 43%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico Madrid 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Alaves's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Madrid are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 30% | Atletico Madrid 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 25% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Alaves 0.72 / Atletico Madrid 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.643 / def 0.871 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.032 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Atletico Madrid xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Alaves 0 - 0 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Alaves vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 25% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Alaves and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Atletico Madrid?
Record (5 meetings): Alaves 2W | Draws 0 | Atletico Madrid 3W.
What form are Alaves and Atletico Madrid in?
Alaves (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Alaves's attack at 0.64x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Madrid's attack (1.03x) against Alaves's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
25%
4.07
32%
3.10
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.79
1.06
Atletico Madrid xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
48%
2.06
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 17.8 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Alaves and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Alaves and 1.06 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 20W 20D 31L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Atletico Madrid's form line: 43W 13D 15L from 71 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alaves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.43 PPG from 35 outings (14W 8D 13L).
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 15W 8D 12L from 35 away games — 1.51 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's season.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.77 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 20W 20D 31L in their last 71 games (1.13 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 43W 13D 15L in their last 71 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.43 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Alaves or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won 4-1 on 2 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alaves
2
Draws
4
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Atletico Madrid?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 34%, Atletico Madrid 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Alaves and 40% for Atletico Madrid.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Atletico Madrid in 37%; Alaves have failed to score in 34% of games; Atletico Madrid in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Atletico Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Alaves's recent matches and 37% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Alaves's recent games and 40% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alaves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves and Atletico Madrid finished level at 0-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.72 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.06 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atletico Madrid landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.64 / defence 0.87 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.03 / defence 0.84, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 25% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 43%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 35%, Atletico Madrid 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.