Alaves 0-2 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alaves face Athletic Club.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Athletic Club at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga (matchday 6). Kick-off is Friday 22 September 2023 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Alaves — last 5 games: 2W 0D 3L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Across their last 10 games, Athletic Club have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Athletic Club have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alaves 1.20 PPG, Athletic Club 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Athletic Club and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 9 Jan 2022, ended Alaves 0–0 Athletic Club — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Alaves trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Athletic Club trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 20% of Alaves's games and 20% of Athletic Club's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 20% | Athletic Club 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.31 xG and Athletic Club 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.090 / defence 1.154 | Athletic Club attack 0.945 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.184. Data: built from Alaves's last 5 games and Athletic Club's last 43.
Result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 36%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.68 | Draw 3.79 | Athletic Club 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Alaves 20% (last 5 games) | Athletic Club 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, matchday 6 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Alaves 1.31 / Athletic Club 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 1.090 / def 1.154 | Athletic Club attack 0.945 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Alaves (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Athletic Club xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Athletic Club FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Athletic Club kick off?
Alaves vs Athletic Club kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 22 September 2023 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Alaves 0 - 2 Athletic Club.
Where is Alaves vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Athletic Club part of?
Alaves vs Athletic Club is a La Liga fixture (matchday 6) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 37% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Alaves and Athletic Club will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alaves vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alaves's attack rating (1.09) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 5 games and Athletic Club's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.79
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.60
1.29
Athletic Club xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Athletic Club Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Alaves and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Alaves and 1.29 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alaves's recent record stands at 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Athletic Club, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 1L across 5 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Athletic Club by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alaves heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Athletic Club in 20%.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Athletic Club
Early Season
Alaves (Home) vs Athletic Club (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Early Season
Athletic Club
Early Season
❓ Alaves vs Athletic Club Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Alaves or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alaves's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Alaves
3
Draws
5
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Athletic Club H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Athletic Club?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 1, Athletic Club have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Athletic Club last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Alaves 20% BTTS, Athletic Club 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Alaves and 40% for Athletic Club.
On the defensive side: Athletic Club in 60%; Alaves have failed to score in 60% of games; Athletic Club in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Athletic Club Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Athletic Club matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Alaves's recent matches and 20% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Athletic Club matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Alaves's recent games and 40% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Athletic Club matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Alaves's recent matches and 60% of Athletic Club's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Athletic Club cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Alaves 0-2 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.31 xG and Athletic Club 1.29 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Alaves fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 1.09 / defence 1.15 against Athletic Club attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 37% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 36%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Athletic Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 20%, Athletic Club 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 20%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Athletic Club's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alaves managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Athletic Club conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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