Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Gangwon FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gangwon FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Ulsan Hyundai FC) versus 1.30 (Gangwon FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% versus Gangwon FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Gangwon FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.45 xG and Gangwon FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.287 / defence 0.961 | Gangwon FC attack 0.712 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.237. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 44 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Gangwon FC 4.55. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Gangwon FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.45 / Gangwon FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.287 / def 0.961 | Gangwon FC attack 0.712 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Gangwon FC xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 51% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.29x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.73
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.85
Gangwon FC xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
5%
19.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.4 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.85 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 76 games, going 43W 21D 12L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.25 PPG from 76 outings (25W 20D 31L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 25W 9D 4L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 0.95 points per game from 38 outings (9W 9D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 21D 12L in their last 76 games (1.97 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 25W 20D 31L in their last 76 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%, Gangwon FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 50% (Gangwon FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gangwon FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 53% of Gangwon FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 50% of Gangwon FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Gangwon FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gangwon FC 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.45 xG and Gangwon FC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.96 against Gangwon FC attack 0.71 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 22%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%, Gangwon FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.