Suwon City FC 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Suwon City FC take on Jeju United FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Suwon City FC welcome Jeju United FC to Suwon Sports Complex. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 April 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 0.68 xG and Jeju United FC 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.849 / defence 1.151 | Jeju United FC attack 0.649 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 0.893 / away 1.039. Data: 6 Suwon City FC games / 6 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 27% | Draw 41% | Jeju United FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.70 | Draw 2.44 | Jeju United FC 3.03. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.45. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.45 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Suwon City FC's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 18% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 27% | Draw 41% | Jeju United FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 28% | xG Suwon City FC 0.68 / Jeju United FC 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.849 / def 1.151 | Jeju United FC attack 0.649 / def 0.892 | league avg home 0.893 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Jeju United FC xG
28%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 4 April 2021 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Suwon City FC 2 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 27% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 33% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (0.85) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 25.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.6%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.74
41%
2.46
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
1.45
0.78
Jeju United FC xG
3.74
27%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.55
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.4 | 18.2 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.0%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 0.78 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Jeju United FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
6
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Jeju United FC 2-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 0.68 xG and Jeju United FC 0.78 xG, a combined 1.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Jeju United FC attack 0.65 / defence 0.89, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 27% | Draw 41% | Jeju United FC 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.