Suwon Bluewings 1-1 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pohang Steelers (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Suwon Bluewings face Pohang Steelers.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings host Pohang Steelers at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 12 July 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon Bluewings have posted 0W 2D 8L at Suwon World Cup Stadium — 0.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pohang Steelers — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Suwon Bluewings, 3 for Pohang Steelers and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Pohang Steelers winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Suwon Bluewings in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 56% versus Pohang Steelers 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 51% | Pohang Steelers 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.91 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.726 / defence 1.241 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.001 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.201. Suwon Bluewings's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Suwon Bluewings games / 54 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 21% | Draw 30% | Pohang Steelers 49%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Pohang Steelers 2.04. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Suwon Bluewings 50% | Pohang Steelers 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Jul 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 21% | Draw 30% | Pohang Steelers 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.91 / Pohang Steelers 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.726 / def 1.241 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.001 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Pohang Steelers xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 12 July 2023 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 1 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 21% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers?
Record (7 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 1W | Draws 3 | Pohang Steelers 3W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Suwon Bluewings's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Pohang Steelers's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
21%
4.76
30%
3.33
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.40
1.49
Pohang Steelers xG
4.76
21%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
5%
21.14
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.5 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.49 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon Bluewings's recent record stands at 13W 17D 29L from 59 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pohang Steelers, meanwhile, have gone 26W 19D 14L across 59 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pohang Steelers by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon Bluewings heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon Bluewings have managed 6W 9D 15L from 30 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pohang Steelers's away record stands at 10W 11D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.37 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 59 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Pohang Steelers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 13W 17D 29L in their last 59 games (0.95 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 26W 19D 14L in their last 59 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Pohang Steelers's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 0.90 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2021, when Suwon Bluewings won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
4
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers?
From 9 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 1-0 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 50%, Pohang Steelers 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Suwon Bluewings) and 47% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Pohang Steelers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 60% of Pohang Steelers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 47% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers finished level at 1-1 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.91 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.49 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.73 / defence 1.24 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 21% | Draw 30% | Pohang Steelers 49%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 51%, Pohang Steelers 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.