Suwon Bluewings 0-4 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings host Jeonbuk Motors at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Championship Round - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon Bluewings — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Suwon World Cup Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jeonbuk Motors — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Suwon Bluewings have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Suwon Bluewings in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 48% versus Jeonbuk Motors 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 52% | Jeonbuk Motors 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.97 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.950 / defence 1.406 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.964 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.264. Data: 33 Suwon Bluewings games / 33 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 21% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 55%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Jeonbuk Motors 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Jeonbuk Motors (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 70% | Jeonbuk Motors 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 21% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.97 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.950 / def 1.406 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.964 / def 1.088 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Jeonbuk Motors xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Suwon Bluewings 0 - 4 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 21% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (3 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 1W | Draws 0 | Jeonbuk Motors 2W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Suwon Bluewings's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
21%
4.70
24%
4.19
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.69
1.71
Jeonbuk Motors xG
4.70
21%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
4%
26.07
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.71 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suwon Bluewings come into this having played 33 games, going 12W 9D 12L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.94 PPG from 33 outings (18W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Suwon Bluewings's home form reads 4W 5D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 1.75 points per game from 16 outings (7W 7D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.76 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Jeonbuk Motors in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 12W 9D 12L in their last 33 games (1.36 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 18W 10D 5L in their last 33 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.06 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2021, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Suwon Bluewings
2
Draws
7
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 69%, Jeonbuk Motors 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Suwon Bluewings) and 38% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 31%; Jeonbuk Motors in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Jeonbuk Motors?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 56% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 38% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jeonbuk Motors run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon Bluewings 0-4 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Championship Round - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.97 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.71 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.95 / defence 1.41 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 21% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 55%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 52%, Jeonbuk Motors 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.