Seongnam FC 2-3 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Seongnam FC take on Suwon City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Seongnam FC host Suwon City FC at Tancheon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Seongnam FC, 0 for Suwon City FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2021, ended 2–1 with Seongnam FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.03 xG and Suwon City FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.791 / defence 1.060 | Suwon City FC attack 0.712 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 0.968 / away 1.149. Seongnam FC's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Seongnam FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Seongnam FC games / 18 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 36% | Draw 37% | Suwon City FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Suwon City FC 3.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 36% | Draw 37% | Suwon City FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Seongnam FC 1.03 / Suwon City FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.791 / def 1.060 | Suwon City FC attack 0.712 / def 1.344 | league avg home 0.968 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Suwon City FC xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Seongnam FC 2 - 3 Suwon City FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 36% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (1 meetings): Seongnam FC 1W | Draws 0 | Suwon City FC 0W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Seongnam FC's attack at 0.79x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.78
37%
2.73
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
1.90
0.87
Suwon City FC xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 0.87 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Seongnam FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2022, when Suwon City FC 2-1 Seongnam FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Seongnam FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Seongnam FC 2-3 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.03 xG and Suwon City FC 0.87 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Seongnam FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon City FC outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.06 against Suwon City FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.34, drawn from 14/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 36% | Draw 37% | Suwon City FC 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.