Seongnam FC 1-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jeju United FC make the trip to Tancheon Sports Complex to face Seongnam FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Thursday 5 May 2022 at 06:00 UTC.
Form
Seongnam FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Tancheon Sports Complex, Seongnam FC have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tancheon Sports Complex.
Jeju United FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jeju United FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Seongnam FC, 1.70 for Jeju United FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Seongnam FC lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Jeju United FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Seongnam FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 45% versus Jeju United FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 42% | Jeju United FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 0.81 xG and Jeju United FC 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.678 / defence 1.339 | Jeju United FC attack 1.159 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.229. Seongnam FC's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Seongnam FC games / 42 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 14% | Draw 23% | Jeju United FC 62%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 7.14 | Draw 4.35 | Jeju United FC 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Jeju United FC (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Seongnam FC 40% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Thursday 5 May 2022, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 14% | Draw 23% | Jeju United FC 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 48% | xG Seongnam FC 0.81 / Jeju United FC 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.678 / def 1.339 | Jeju United FC attack 1.159 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Jeju United FC xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 06:00 on Thursday 5 May 2022 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC?
Seongnam FC 1 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 14% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC?
Record (3 meetings): Seongnam FC 0W | Draws 2 | Jeju United FC 1W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Seongnam FC's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (1.16x) against Seongnam FC's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
14%
7.02
23%
4.29
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.71
1.91
Jeju United FC xG
7.02
14%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
15%
6.73
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
2%
47.20
28%
3.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.91 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Seongnam FC's recent record stands at 11W 11D 16L from 38 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 10L across 38 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Seongnam FC against 1.37 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Seongnam FC have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 5W 9D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 12W 16D 10L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Seongnam FC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Seongnam FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seongnam FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since March 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seongnam FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Seongnam FC
2
Draws
3
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 1, Jeju United FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2022, when Jeju United FC 1-2 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 42%, Jeju United FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Seongnam FC) and 47% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 37%; Seongnam FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Jeju United FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 53% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 47% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Jeju United FC edge out Seongnam FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Seongnam FC 1-2 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 0.81 xG and Jeju United FC 1.91 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.34 against Jeju United FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 14% | Draw 23% | Jeju United FC 62%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 42%, Jeju United FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Seongnam FC 1.16 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.