Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Championship Round - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at Gimcheon Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Gimcheon Sangmu FC are significantly better at Gimcheon Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ulsan Hyundai FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.32 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.121 / defence 0.871 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.812 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.234. Data: 33 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4.00. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.32 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.121 / def 0.871 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.812 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 47% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.55
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.20
0.87
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
7%
15.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.87 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 16W 8D 9L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 18W 7D 8L from 33 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.70 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2.06 PPG from 16 outings (10W 3D 3L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 6W 4D 6L from 16 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ulsan Hyundai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.61 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 16W 8D 9L in their last 33 games (1.70 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 18W 7D 8L in their last 33 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 2.06 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 38% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 38% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Gimcheon Sangmu FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 0-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Championship Round - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.32 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.87 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.87 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.81, drawn from 33/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 25%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.70 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.