Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-0 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Seoul make the trip to Gimcheon Stadium to face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 March 2022 at 05:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Seoul's overall K League 1 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC Seoul away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.96 xG and FC Seoul 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.212 / defence 1.228 | FC Seoul attack 1.062 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 0.996. Data: 3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 36 FC Seoul games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 28% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 44%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | FC Seoul 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Seoul as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 28% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.96 / FC Seoul 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.212 / def 1.228 | FC Seoul attack 1.062 / def 0.823 | league avg home 0.967 / away 0.996 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
FC Seoul xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 0 FC Seoul.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 28% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. FC Seoul away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (1.21) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (1.06x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (3/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
28%
3.61
28%
3.56
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.26
1.30
FC Seoul xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
13.24
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.5 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.30 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
FC Seoul
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 5-1 on 3 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
4
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-0 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Seoul.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat FC Seoul 2-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.96 xG and FC Seoul 1.30 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Seoul landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.23 against FC Seoul attack 1.06 / defence 0.82, drawn from 3/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 28% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 44%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.