Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

FC Anyang make the trip to Gimcheon Stadium to face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Form

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Gimcheon Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC Anyang's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Anyang have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC Anyang in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

FC Anyang goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 57% and FC Anyang 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45% | FC Anyang 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.22 xG and FC Anyang 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.004 / defence 0.996 | FC Anyang attack 1.101 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.312. Data: 55 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 55 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 29% | Draw 32% | FC Anyang 39%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | FC Anyang 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FC Anyang as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Anyang if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70% | FC Anyang 60% BTTS from recent games.

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