Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Anyang make the trip to Gimcheon Stadium to face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Gimcheon Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
FC Anyang's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Anyang have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–4 with FC Anyang winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
FC Anyang goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53% versus FC Anyang 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53% | FC Anyang 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 xG and FC Anyang 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.027 / defence 1.020 | FC Anyang attack 0.980 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.042. Data: 39 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 39 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37% | Draw 35% | FC Anyang 28%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | FC Anyang 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | FC Anyang 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37% | Draw 35% | FC Anyang 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 / FC Anyang 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.027 / def 1.020 | FC Anyang attack 0.980 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FC Anyang xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 37% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang?
Record (3 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W | Draws 0 | FC Anyang 1W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against FC Anyang's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (0.98x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
37%
2.73
35%
2.86
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.25
1.04
FC Anyang xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.04 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 18W 7D 13L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
FC Anyang's form line: 14W 7D 17L from 38 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.29 for FC Anyang. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (10W 2D 7L).
On the road, FC Anyang have gone 6W 3D 10L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 18W 7D 13L in their last 38 games (1.61 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or FC Anyang away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.68 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or FC Anyang been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Anyang in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Anyang won 4-1 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang?
From 5 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, FC Anyang have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when FC Anyang 2-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37%, FC Anyang 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 58% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Anyang in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play FC Anyang?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 63% of FC Anyang's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 58% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang finished level at 1-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 xG and FC Anyang 1.04 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against FC Anyang attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37% | Draw 35% | FC Anyang 28%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53%, FC Anyang 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.61 PPG, FC Anyang 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.