Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-4 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41%, yet in-form Daejeon Citizen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen meet at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 October 2022 at 08:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 2W 0D 1L across 3 K League 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Daejeon Citizen have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Daejeon Citizen are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Daejeon Citizen in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Daejeon Citizen — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 100% and Daejeon Citizen 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 67% | Daejeon Citizen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.31 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.817 / defence 1.059 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.242. Data: 33 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 0 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 32%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Daejeon Citizen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daejeon Citizen (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | Daejeon Citizen 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 08:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.31 / Daejeon Citizen 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.817 / def 1.059 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Daejeon Citizen xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 08:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0 - 4 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Relegation Round fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 41% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 0.82x the league average against Daejeon Citizen's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (0.85x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 33/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.66
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.43
1.12
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.12 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Daejeon Citizen, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Daejeon Citizen by 1.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gimcheon Sangmu FC heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Daejeon Citizen in 67%.
Last 3 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Early Season
Daejeon Citizen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daejeon Citizen won 0-4 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
4
Draws
4
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 67% for Daejeon Citizen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 67% for Daejeon Citizen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's games and 67% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's matches and 67% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Daejeon Citizen run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-4 at Gimcheon Stadium, Relegation Round, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.31 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.12 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against Daejeon Citizen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 32%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 67%, Daejeon Citizen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gimcheon Sangmu FC managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.