Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Daegu FC travel to Gimcheon Stadium to take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022, 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Daegu FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 0, Daegu FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Daegu FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.47 xG and Daegu FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.990 / defence 0.957 | Daegu FC attack 0.932 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.156. Data: 11 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 44 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Daegu FC 3.85. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.47 / Daegu FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.990 / def 0.957 | Daegu FC attack 0.932 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Daegu FC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 47% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC?
Record (1 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W | Draws 0 | Daegu FC 1W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Daegu FC away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.76
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.50
1.03
Daegu FC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.03 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Daegu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, Daegu FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.47 xG and Daegu FC 1.03 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Daegu FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 11/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 26%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.