Pohang Steelers 3-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pohang Steelers at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Steelyard Stadium plays host to Pohang Steelers versus Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 2 July 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pohang Steelers have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Steelyard Stadium, Pohang Steelers have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pohang Steelers are significantly better at Steelyard Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon City FC have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Pohang Steelers's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Pohang Steelers, 0 for Suwon City FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Pohang Steelers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 60% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 39% | Suwon City FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.90 xG and Suwon City FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.103 / defence 0.895 | Suwon City FC attack 0.926 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.208. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Pohang Steelers games / 52 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 57% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Suwon City FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Pohang Steelers (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 50% | Suwon City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jul 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 57% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.90 / Suwon City FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.103 / def 0.895 | Suwon City FC attack 0.926 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Suwon City FC xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 2 July 2023 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Pohang Steelers 3 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 57% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
Record (1 meetings): Pohang Steelers 1W | Draws 0 | Suwon City FC 0W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 1.10x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.93x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.02
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.90
1.00
Suwon City FC xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
15%
6.66
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
3%
36.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.00 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 57 games, going 25W 19D 13L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.18 PPG from 57 outings (18W 13D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pohang Steelers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 15W 7D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 57 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 25W 19D 13L in their last 57 games (1.65 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 18W 13D 26L in their last 57 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Suwon City FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 2.00 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 22 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 1-5 on 22 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 3D 1L from 7 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
4
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2025, when Pohang Steelers 1-5 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 58%, Suwon City FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Pohang Steelers) and 54% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 50% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 54% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pohang Steelers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Suwon City FC 3-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.90 xG and Suwon City FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pohang Steelers beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.10 / defence 0.90 against Suwon City FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.36, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 57% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 18%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 39%, Suwon City FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (57 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (57 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.