Pohang Steelers 1-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pohang Steelers at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Pohang Steelers welcome Daegu FC to Steelyard Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 September 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pohang Steelers's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Steelyard Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Steelyard Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Daegu FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Pohang Steelers are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Pohang Steelers in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 48% versus Daegu FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pohang Steelers 33% | Daegu FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.03 xG and Daegu FC 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.805 / defence 0.893 | Daegu FC attack 0.686 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.130. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Pohang Steelers games / 27 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 43% | Draw 33% | Daegu FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Daegu FC 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Daegu FC's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pohang Steelers as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.72 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 30% | Daegu FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 43% | Draw 33% | Daegu FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.03 / Daegu FC 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.805 / def 0.893 | Daegu FC attack 0.686 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Daegu FC xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 10 September 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 2 Daegu FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 43% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.81) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
43%
2.33
33%
3.03
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
1.72
0.69
Daegu FC xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
9%
11.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.69 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 27 games, going 10W 9D 8L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (10W 8D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.44 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 5W 5D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 27 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 10W 9D 8L in their last 27 games (1.44 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 10W 8D 9L in their last 27 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Daegu FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.54 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
5
Draws
1
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Daegu FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Daegu FC 0-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 38%, Daegu FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Pohang Steelers) and 46% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Daegu FC in 31%; Pohang Steelers have failed to score in 38% of games; Daegu FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 46% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 46% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Pohang Steelers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Pohang Steelers 1-2 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.03 xG and Daegu FC 0.69 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Daegu FC outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.81 / defence 0.89 against Daegu FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.28, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 43% | Draw 33% | Daegu FC 24%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Daegu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 33%, Daegu FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.44 PPG, Daegu FC 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.