Pohang Steelers 0-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Pohang Steelers welcome Daegu FC to Steelyard Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 April 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.25 xG and Daegu FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.887 / defence 1.403 | Daegu FC attack 0.970 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.013. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Pohang Steelers games / 6 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 30% | Draw 33% | Daegu FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Daegu FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 30% | Draw 33% | Daegu FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.25 / Daegu FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.887 / def 1.403 | Daegu FC attack 0.970 / def 1.425 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Daegu FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 2 April 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 30% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.89) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
30%
3.29
33%
3.00
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.63
1.38
Daegu FC xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
10%
9.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.38 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
5
Draws
1
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Daegu FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Daegu FC 0-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Pohang Steelers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC finished level at 0-0 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.25 xG and Daegu FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pohang Steelers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Daegu FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.89 / defence 1.40 against Daegu FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.43, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 30% | Draw 33% | Daegu FC 36%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.