Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen meet at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 March 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Daejeon Citizen's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Jeonbuk Motors, 1.40 for Daejeon Citizen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jeonbuk Motors have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Daejeon Citizen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 48% versus Daejeon Citizen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 35% | Daejeon Citizen 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.36 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.006 / defence 1.027 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.031 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.050. Data: 33 Jeonbuk Motors games / 33 Daejeon Citizen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 31%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Daejeon Citizen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Daejeon Citizen 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.36 / Daejeon Citizen 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.006 / def 1.027 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.031 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Daejeon Citizen xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 07:30 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 1 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 42% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.01x the league average against Daejeon Citizen's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (1.03x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.71
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.47
1.11
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.11 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 40 games, going 18W 9D 13L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Daejeon Citizen sit at 1.42 PPG from 40 outings (14W 15D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Jeonbuk Motors against 1.42 for Daejeon Citizen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 11W 4D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Daejeon Citizen have taken 1.20 points per game from 20 outings (5W 9D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.55 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen in 62%.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 18W 9D 13L in their last 40 games (1.58 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 14W 15D 11L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.85 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jeonbuk Motors
5
Draws
1
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, Daejeon Citizen have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 0-0 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 55%, Daejeon Citizen 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 55% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 65% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 55% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen finished level at 1-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.36 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.11 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 31%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 35%, Daejeon Citizen 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.58 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.