Jeju United FC 0-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Jeju United FC's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Ulsan Hyundai FC's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jeju United FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Ulsan Hyundai FC, who have claimed 7 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
It is worth noting that Ulsan Hyundai FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 55% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 42% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.27 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.060 / defence 0.884 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.049 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.319. Data: 59 Jeju United FC games / 59 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 34% | Draw 34% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Ulsan Hyundai FC lead the H2H ledger, but Jeju United FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 70% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 34% | Draw 34% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Jeju United FC 1.27 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.060 / def 0.884 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.049 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeju United FC 0 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 34% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (9 meetings): Jeju United FC 2W | Draws 0 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 7W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.05x) against Jeju United FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
34%
2.93
34%
2.93
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.49
1.22
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.22 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Jeju United FC have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 21W 17D 26L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 23W 15D 26L from 64 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Jeju United FC against 1.31 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jeju United FC have posted 1.34 PPG from 32 outings (11W 10D 11L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 10W 9D 13L from 32 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 64 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 21W 17D 26L in their last 64 games (1.25 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 23W 15D 26L in their last 64 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.34 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
7
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Jeju United FC 0-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Jeju United FC) and 41% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 41% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jeju United FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 0-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.27 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jeju United FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.88 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 34% | Draw 34% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 42%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.25 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.