Jeju United FC 3-2 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jeju United FC (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jeju United FC face Seongnam FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 July 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Jeju United FC have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
Seongnam FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Seongnam FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Seongnam FC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Jeju United FC. A 0.70 PPG lead over Seongnam FC (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Jeju United FC, 0 for Seongnam FC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Jeju United FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Seongnam FC half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 55% versus Seongnam FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 52% | Seongnam FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.13 xG and Seongnam FC 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.012 / defence 0.968 | Seongnam FC attack 0.799 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.114. Data: 53 Jeju United FC games / 53 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 41% | Draw 32% | Seongnam FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Seongnam FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 40% | Seongnam FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Jul 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 41% | Draw 32% | Seongnam FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Jeju United FC 1.13 / Seongnam FC 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.012 / def 0.968 | Seongnam FC attack 0.799 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Seongnam FC xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 8 July 2022 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Jeju United FC 3 - 2 Seongnam FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 41% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC?
Record (4 meetings): Jeju United FC 2W | Draws 2 | Seongnam FC 0W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Seongnam FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Seongnam FC's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Seongnam FC's attack (0.80x) against Jeju United FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.15
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
1.99
0.86
Seongnam FC xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.86 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Jeju United FC have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 20W 22D 16L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Seongnam FC's form line: 13W 17D 28L from 58 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jeju United FC are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Seongnam FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jeju United FC have posted 1.46 PPG from 28 outings (10W 11D 7L).
On the road, Seongnam FC have gone 5W 8D 15L from 28 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeju United FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.83 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 58 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Seongnam FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 20W 22D 16L in their last 58 games (1.41 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 13W 17D 28L in their last 58 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Seongnam FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.46 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since March 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jeju United FC
2
Draws
1
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 3, Seongnam FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2022, when Jeju United FC 1-2 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 61%, Seongnam FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Jeju United FC) and 43% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Seongnam FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 43% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 43% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeju United FC edge out Seongnam FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Seongnam FC 3-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.13 xG and Seongnam FC 0.86 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Seongnam FC outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.97 against Seongnam FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.89, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 41% | Draw 32% | Seongnam FC 27%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 52%, Seongnam FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeju United FC arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.