Incheon United 0-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Incheon United at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to Sungui Arena Park to face Incheon United in K League 1, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Wednesday 14 September 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Incheon United (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Incheon United at Sungui Arena Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Incheon United against 1.80 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 49% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 39% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.34 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 1.000 / defence 0.764 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.904 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.291. Incheon United's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Incheon United games / 64 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 47% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4.00. Incheon United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Incheon United are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Incheon United 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Sep 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 47% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Incheon United 1.34 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 1.000 / def 0.764 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.904 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 14 September 2022 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Incheon United 0 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 47% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (1.00) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.90x) against Incheon United's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.58
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.23
0.89
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.89 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, Incheon United have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 24W 23D 22L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 39W 19D 11L from 69 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Incheon United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Incheon United have posted 1.47 PPG from 34 outings (13W 11D 10L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 16W 10D 8L from 34 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Incheon United are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.59 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 69 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 24W 23D 22L in their last 69 games (1.38 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 39W 19D 11L in their last 69 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.47 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 0-3 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Incheon United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 38%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Incheon United) and 53% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Incheon United have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Incheon United's recent matches and 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Incheon United's recent games and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Incheon United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 0-0 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.34 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Incheon United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 1.00 / defence 0.76 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 47% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 25%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 39%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.