Incheon United 0-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to Sungui Arena Park to take on Incheon United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023, 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Incheon United's home record at Sungui Arena Park: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Incheon United are significantly better at Sungui Arena Park than their overall form suggests.
Jeonbuk Motors — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jeonbuk Motors are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Incheon United have won 0, Jeonbuk Motors 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Incheon United in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 49% versus Jeonbuk Motors 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 40% | Jeonbuk Motors 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.84 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.846 / defence 0.936 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.005 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.270. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Incheon United games / 45 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 26% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Incheon United 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 26% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Incheon United 0.84 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.846 / def 0.936 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.005 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Jeonbuk Motors xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Incheon United 0 - 0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 26% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (1 meetings): Incheon United 0W | Draws 0 | Jeonbuk Motors 1W.
What form are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.85) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
26%
3.90
30%
3.32
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.03
1.20
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.89
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 15.7 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.20 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Incheon United come into this having played 76 games, going 25W 26D 25L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.96 PPG from 76 outings (43W 20D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Incheon United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Incheon United's home form reads 14W 13D 11L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 1.97 points per game from 38 outings (22W 9D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Incheon United are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.67 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 25W 26D 25L in their last 76 games (1.33 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.45 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Incheon United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2024, when Incheon United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Incheon United's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
3
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Incheon United 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 40%, Jeonbuk Motors 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Incheon United) and 50% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 40%; Incheon United have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Incheon United's recent matches and 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Incheon United's recent games and 50% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Incheon United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 13, as Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors drew 0-0 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.84 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.20 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Incheon United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.85 / defence 0.94 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.00 / defence 0.79, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 26% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 40%, Jeonbuk Motors 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.