Incheon United 2-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sungui Arena Park plays host to Incheon United versus Daegu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.34 xG and Daegu FC 0.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.973 / defence 1.150 | Daegu FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 0.439. Data: 1 Incheon United games / 1 Daegu FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Incheon United 57% | Draw 34% | Daegu FC 9%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 1.75 | Draw 2.94 | Daegu FC 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Incheon United (57%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Daegu FC's lower xG of 0.43 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 34% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 57% | Draw 34% | Daegu FC 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 29% | xG Incheon United 1.34 / Daegu FC 0.43 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.973 / def 1.150 | Daegu FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.197 / away 0.439 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.43
Daegu FC xG
29%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Daegu FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Daegu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 6 March 2021 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Incheon United 2 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Daegu FC part of?
Incheon United vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 57% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 9% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Incheon United and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Daegu FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.97) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.85x) against Incheon United's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.43.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (18.3%), 2-0 (15.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
57%
1.76
34%
2.92
9%
11.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.77
0.43
Daegu FC xG
1.76
57%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
11.27
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.49
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
65%
1.54
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
37%
2.70
2%
43.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 22.9 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.6%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.43 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Incheon United go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Incheon United
5
Draws
1
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 4, Daegu FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when Daegu FC 1-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Incheon United edge out Daegu FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Daegu FC 2-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.34 xG and Daegu FC 0.43 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Daegu FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 57% | Draw 34% | Daegu FC 9%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.