Gwangju FC 0-0 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 42%, yet in-form Daejeon Citizen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 3 sees Daejeon Citizen travel to Gwangju Football Stadium to take on Gwangju FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024, 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gwangju FC stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gwangju FC are significantly better at Gwangju Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Daejeon Citizen away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Daejeon Citizen are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Gwangju FC, 2 for Daejeon Citizen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gwangju FC in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 42% versus Daejeon Citizen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 37% | Daejeon Citizen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.52 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.928 / defence 1.013 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.061 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 66 Gwangju FC games / 66 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 42% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 33%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Daejeon Citizen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gwangju FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daejeon Citizen (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Gwangju FC 40% | Daejeon Citizen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 42% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Gwangju FC 1.52 / Daejeon Citizen 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.928 / def 1.013 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.061 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Daejeon Citizen xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Gwangju FC 0 - 0 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 42% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (5 meetings): Gwangju FC 2W | Draws 1 | Daejeon Citizen 2W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gwangju FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Daejeon Citizen's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
42%
2.39
25%
4.01
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.84
1.33
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
7%
13.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.33 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gwangju FC's recent record stands at 30W 13D 30L from 73 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Daejeon Citizen, meanwhile, have gone 22W 26D 25L across 73 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gwangju FC on 1.41 PPG, Daejeon Citizen on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gwangju FC have managed 18W 5D 13L from 36 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daejeon Citizen's away record stands at 7W 15D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.30 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen in 60%.
Last 73 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 30W 13D 30L in their last 73 games (1.41 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 22W 26D 25L in their last 73 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.64 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2026, when Daejeon Citizen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gwangju FC
4
Draws
3
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Gwangju FC 0-5 Daejeon Citizen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 36%, Daejeon Citizen 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gwangju FC) and 53% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 69% of Daejeon Citizen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 53% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gwangju FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gwangju Football Stadium, Relegation Round - 3, as Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen drew 0-0 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.52 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.33 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gwangju FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Daejeon Citizen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 42% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 33%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 37%, Daejeon Citizen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.41 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.