Gwangju FC 2-1 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Daejeon Citizen travel to Gwangju Football Stadium to take on Gwangju FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 May 2024, 08:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gwangju FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gwangju Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Daejeon Citizen away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gwangju FC 1.70 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gwangju FC, 0 for Daejeon Citizen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with Gwangju FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gwangju FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 16% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 34% versus Daejeon Citizen 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gwangju FC 26% | Daejeon Citizen 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.65 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 1.110 / defence 1.246 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.673 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.187. Data: 42 Gwangju FC games / 43 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 52% | Draw 26% | Daejeon Citizen 22%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Daejeon Citizen 4.55. Gwangju FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gwangju FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Gwangju FC 10% | Daejeon Citizen 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 52% | Draw 26% | Daejeon Citizen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Gwangju FC 1.65 / Daejeon Citizen 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 1.110 / def 1.246 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.673 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Daejeon Citizen xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 08:30 on Monday 6 May 2024 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Gwangju FC 2 - 1 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 52% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (1 meetings): Gwangju FC 1W | Draws 0 | Daejeon Citizen 0W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gwangju FC's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Daejeon Citizen's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.90
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.65
1.00
Daejeon Citizen xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
4%
23.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.00 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gwangju FC's recent record stands at 16W 11D 11L from 38 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Daejeon Citizen, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 11L across 38 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gwangju FC on 1.55 PPG, Daejeon Citizen on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gwangju FC have managed 9W 4D 6L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daejeon Citizen's away record stands at 4W 9D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.47 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen in 63%.
Defensively: Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 12W 15D 11L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.63 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Daejeon Citizen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2026, when Daejeon Citizen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gwangju FC
3
Draws
4
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 2-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 16%, Daejeon Citizen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Gwangju FC) and 53% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 47% of games; Daejeon Citizen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 16% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 68% of Daejeon Citizen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 53% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Gwangju FC edge out Daejeon Citizen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Daejeon Citizen 2-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.65 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.00 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.25 against Daejeon Citizen attack 0.67 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 52% | Draw 26% | Daejeon Citizen 22%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 26%, Daejeon Citizen 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.55 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.