Gangwon FC 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Gangwon FC welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Gangwon FC have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Chuncheon Songam Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ulsan Hyundai FC are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Gangwon FC, 3 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Gangwon FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 57% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 41% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 0.68 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.710 / defence 1.104 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.945 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.057. Gangwon FC's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Gangwon FC games / 48 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 22% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.17. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Gangwon FC's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 22% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Gangwon FC 0.68 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.710 / def 1.104 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.945 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gangwon FC 1 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 22% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (5 meetings): Gangwon FC 2W | Draws 0 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.68. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
22%
4.46
32%
3.12
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
1.78
1.10
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
7%
13.44
23%
4.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 18.6 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.10 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 26W 24D 26L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 44W 16D 16L from 76 games, 1.95 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gangwon FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.61 PPG from 38 outings (16W 13D 9L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 17W 9D 12L from 38 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 26W 24D 26L in their last 76 games (1.34 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 44W 16D 16L in their last 76 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.61 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gangwon FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 Gangwon FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 66%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Gangwon FC) and 42% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 34%; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Gangwon FC's games and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 42% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 1-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 0.68 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.10 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 46/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 22% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 41%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.