Gangwon FC 0-4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chuncheon Songam Stadium plays host to Gangwon FC versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gangwon FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gangwon FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Chuncheon Songam Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Gangwon FC 2W, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 60% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 58% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.03 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.787 / defence 0.819 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.185 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.025. Gangwon FC's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Gangwon FC games / 45 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 36% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gangwon FC 50% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 36% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Gangwon FC 1.03 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.787 / def 0.819 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.185 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gangwon FC 0 - 4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 36% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (4 meetings): Gangwon FC 2W | Draws 0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (0.79) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (1.19x) against Gangwon FC's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
36%
2.79
31%
3.27
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.03
0.99
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.99 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gangwon FC come into this having played 38 games, going 19W 7D 12L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit at 1.66 PPG from 38 outings (18W 9D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Gangwon FC against 1.66 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gangwon FC's home form reads 12W 5D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Gangwon FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gangwon FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 19W 7D 12L in their last 38 games (1.68 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 2.16 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-4 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 5, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 63%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Gangwon FC) and 47% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 32%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 42% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 47% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gimcheon Sangmu FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Gangwon FC 0-4 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.03 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Gangwon FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.79 / defence 0.82 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.08, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 36% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 34%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 58%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.68 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.