Gangwon FC 0-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 38%, yet in-form Jeonbuk Motors provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors make the trip to Gangneung Stadium to face Gangwon FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Form
Gangwon FC (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Gangneung Stadium, Gangwon FC have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gangneung Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jeonbuk Motors's overall K League 1 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Jeonbuk Motors arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Gangwon FC half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 46% versus Jeonbuk Motors 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 43% | Jeonbuk Motors 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.14 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.101 / defence 0.882 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.055 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.108. Data: 28 Gangwon FC games / 31 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 38% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 32%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Jeonbuk Motors 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeonbuk Motors (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 38% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Gangwon FC 1.14 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.101 / def 0.882 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.055 / def 1.069 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Jeonbuk Motors xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Gangwon FC 0 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 38% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gangwon FC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Jeonbuk Motors's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (1.05x) against Gangwon FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 28/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.35
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.17
1.03
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.03 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 7W 9D 12L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Jeonbuk Motors's form line: 15W 8D 5L from 28 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gangwon FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (5W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Gangwon FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 6W 5D 2L from 13 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.79 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 7W 9D 12L in their last 28 games (1.07 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 15W 8D 5L in their last 28 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-3 on 13 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
2
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 6, Jeonbuk Motors have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 31%, Jeonbuk Motors 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gangwon FC) and 38% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 31%; Gangwon FC have failed to score in 31% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 54% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 38% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Jeonbuk Motors defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Gangwon FC 0-1 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.14 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.03 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.88 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 28/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 38% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 32%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Jeonbuk Motors win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 43%, Jeonbuk Motors 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.