Gangwon FC 0-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Gangwon FC take on Jeju United FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Gangwon FC welcome Jeju United FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 April 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gangwon FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Gangwon FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeju United FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeju United FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gangwon FC 1.30 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Gangwon FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 53% versus Jeju United FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 49% | Jeju United FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.18 xG and Jeju United FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.833 / defence 0.991 | Jeju United FC attack 0.914 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.091. Data: 38 Gangwon FC games / 38 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 37% | Draw 37% | Jeju United FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.70 | Draw 2.70 | Jeju United FC 3.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Gangwon FC 70% | Jeju United FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 37% | Draw 37% | Jeju United FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Gangwon FC 1.18 / Jeju United FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.833 / def 0.991 | Jeju United FC attack 0.914 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Jeju United FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC 0 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 37% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.74
37%
2.72
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.17
0.99
Jeju United FC xG
2.74
37%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.99 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gangwon FC come into this having played 76 games, going 25W 20D 31L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.37 PPG from 76 outings (26W 26D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.25 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gangwon FC's home form reads 16W 11D 10L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.43 points per game from 37 outings (14W 11D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 61%.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 25W 20D 31L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 26W 26D 24L in their last 76 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.59 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gangwon FC
7
Draws
0
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 51%, Jeju United FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Gangwon FC) and 57% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 57% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 57% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Gangwon FC 0-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.18 xG and Jeju United FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.99 against Jeju United FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 37% | Draw 37% | Jeju United FC 27%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 49%, Jeju United FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.25 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.