Gangwon FC 0-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gangwon FC host Gwangju FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 20 April 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.40 xG and Gwangju FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.068 / defence 1.053 | Gwangju FC attack 0.928 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 0.999 / away 1.008. Gwangju FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Gangwon FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Gangwon FC games / 10 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 46% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Gwangju FC 3.85. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Apr 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 46% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Gangwon FC 1.40 / Gwangju FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.068 / def 1.053 | Gwangju FC attack 0.928 / def 1.308 | league avg home 0.999 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Gwangju FC xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 20 April 2021 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC?
Gangwon FC 0 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 46% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.07) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.48
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.38
0.98
Gwangju FC xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.98 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 6, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gwangju FC 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Gwangju FC defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Gangwon FC 0-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.40 xG and Gwangju FC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.05 against Gwangju FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.31, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 46% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 26%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Gwangju FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.